EIA August outlook: commodity prices path for Brent and gas
EIA's August 2026 outlook saw Brent averaging $87 a barrel in 2026 and $69 in 2027, with U.S. gas storage set for its highest pre-winter level since 2016.
| EIA forecast (Aug. 2026 STEO) | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude ($/bbl) | 69 | 87 | 69 |
| Henry Hub gas ($/MMBtu) | 3.53 | 3.44 | 3.31 |
| U.S. crude output (mb/d) | 13.6 | 13.8 | 14.2 |
| U.S. LNG exports (Bcf/d) | 15 | 17 | 19 |
| Gas storage, October 2026 | — | 3,985 Bcf | — |
The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its August Short-Term Energy Outlook on August 11, 2026, setting out a path for energy commodity prices that peaks in 2026 and eases in 2027. The agency forecast Brent crude averaging $87 a barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, before returning to $69 in 2027. It projected a third-quarter 2026 Brent average of $85.
The headline of the release was natural gas storage. EIA expects U.S. inventories to reach 3,985 billion cubic feet in October 2026, which it described as the most gas in storage ahead of a winter heating season since 2016. Ample storage tends to cushion prices going into winter, and EIA’s price forecasts reflect that: Henry Hub is projected to average $3.44 per million British thermal units in 2026 and $3.31 in 2027, down from $3.53 in 2025, with a third-quarter 2026 average of $2.87.
On supply, EIA forecast U.S. crude oil production rising from 13.6 million barrels a day in 2025 to 13.8 million in 2026 and 14.2 million in 2027. Liquefied natural gas exports are projected to grow from 15 billion cubic feet a day in 2025 to 17 Bcf/d in 2026 and 19 Bcf/d in 2027, with the third quarter of 2026 averaging 16.5 Bcf/d. Rising exports are one of the main channels that could absorb the storage surplus over time.
The outlook also covered the broader economy and power demand. EIA assumed U.S. GDP growth of 2.0% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, projected U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions of 4.8 billion metric tons in both years, and cut its forecast for 2027 electricity load growth in Texas to 6% from 14%.
For futures traders, the STEO is a reference point rather than a market signal. Its price paths are agency estimates built on assumptions about supply, demand and inventories, and they are revised every month. The gap between the 2026 and 2027 Brent forecasts, $18 a barrel, shows how much of this year’s elevated level EIA treats as temporary.
What to watch: the September STEO for revisions to the Brent path, weekly storage reports to see whether injections keep inventories on track for the 3,985 Bcf October estimate, and monthly LNG export figures against the 16.5 Bcf/d third-quarter estimate.
Prepared with AI assistance from public sources and reviewed under our editorial policy. Not investment advice.
